Transport-energy modelling in Kenya

This was a collaboration with four Kenyan partners – Strathmore University, University of Nairobi, the African E-mobility Alliance (AFEMA) and Sustainable Transport Africa – to co-develop models to support policymakers and researchers in testing out policies in the transport sector as the country progresses towards its own economic development targets – such as Vision2030, Kenya’s vision to be a middle-income country by 2030 – and its environmental targets, including Kenya’s target to keep total CO2 emissions to 30% below its baseline scenario, as detailed in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.

At this point, it must be stressed that Kenya contributes a tiny amount to global CO2 emissions – 0.05% of the global total in 2021[1] – and so this project is not about the ‘decarbonisation’ of the Kenyan economy. Rather, the CCG programme aims to grow the evidence base in promoting the accelerated economic development of its partner countries, including Kenya, avoiding a situation where countries become locked-in to old, dirty and increasingly uncompetitive technologies as wealthier countries transition to a low-carbon world.

During this time, James was based at the Strathmore Energy Research Centre (SERC), a research unit within Strathmore with strong expertise in the renewables and e-mobility sectors. This collaboration saw the adaptation of an existing transport-energy modelling framework originally developed by the TSU’s Christian Brand, the Transport Energy Air pollution Model (TEAM), from the UK context to the Kenyan context. This included many fundamental changes to the model to reflect the significant differences in the dynamics of travel demand and vehicle markets between Kenya and the UK.

In order to populate this model with plausible scenarios for the Kenyan transport sector, a scenario development workshop was held in Nairobi at the end of March 2023. The workshop, whose design was led by SoGE’s Elena Pierard Manzano, intended to tease out interactions between transport and its adjacent subsectors of the wider Kenyan economy in amongst national and international trends that will shape the country in the following decades. Attendees included Kenyan government ministers, academics, and representatives from NGOs and the private sector.

The model, TEAM-Kenya, is now owned by colleagues at Strathmore and AFEMA. Going forwards, it will be used by Kenyan researchers to advise policymakers at county, national and international levels on transport pathways for Kenya’s sustainable development.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Photo: This Matatu is battery-powered. Provided by Nairobi-based startup BasiGo, these electric buses now run several of the established Super Metro routes around the city. They operate on a pay-per-kilometre business model, whereby all charging and servicing is provided by BasiGo for a fixed cost from the Matatu owner. Aside from eliminating toxic fumes from diesel engines, on a typical driving schedule they can save drivers significant cost on the avoidance of buying fuel. As a result, these Matatus can operate subsidy-free and can out-compete diesel buses (a single on this bus costs 40 shillings, compared to 50 shillings on its diesel equivalent).