“Planning to Fail? How science can respond to reduced climate mitigation ambition”
Is the UK now proactively planning to miss its emission targets? Tim Schwanen, Director of the Transport Studies Unit and Greg Marsden, University of Leeds, explain how the research–policy interface can both challenge downgraded ambition and provide more actionable routes forward.
In this article in npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport, Tim Schwanen and Greg Marsden reflect and examine on the current back-tracking of transport climate ambition in the UK in the past 2 years. The required annual carbon reduction continues to outstrip the ability to reduce emissions and the optimistic strategies put in place are now being exposed as not delivering their targets.
‘Progress has been made, in particular in decarbonising the power sector, which has underpinned a meeting of carbon budgets in the period up to 2023. However, as policy change now requires actions across all sectors at pace, the Government is currently off track to meet the budget goals out to 2037. This is particularly problematic for the transport sector as surface transport (excluding domestic and international maritime and aviation) saw no reductions in CO2eq emissions from 1990 to 2019. It is the largest contributor to total emissions at 26% (109MtC), despite reductions in car use since the COVID-19 pandemic.’
Greg and Tim demonstrate that the political response to not meeting targets has been to either:
1. Double-down on emission reductions.
However, this now means delivering emissions reductions on the scale seen during 2020 and the first year of the pandemic when large parts of the economy were closed. And doing that for at least 10 years, which is unrealistic.
2. Or to reframe the problem entirely.
Greg and Tim use Kingdon’s 3 streams model of policy change to reflect on the broader issue at hand. Politicians only want to recognise problems which they feel they have a solution to. If the problem is seen to be too big to solve (with the politics of the day) then reframe the problem.
Greg and Tim propose that research must become more engaged in the political aspects of the transition, accepting that climate change is political.
‘Finally, as academic researchers, we can adapt our modes of research to become more proactive in reframing the debate, identifying solutions and challenging the downgrading of ambition. As well as active engagement in public arenas, there is a range of research approaches that are oriented towards change processes and action, including transition management, design experimentation and more research activist approaches.’
Read the whole of their open access paper.
